Although Russia has repeatedly denied that it will import large quantities of food, the market does not seem to be "acceptable." Affected by Russia’s market rumors that it would be difficult to avoid the import of food, the Chicago wheat price, which has fallen from the recent high, rebounded on the 23rd. The December wheat contract of the day rose 13.5 cents, or 1.9%. Although the Chicago wheat futures prices fell slightly on the 24th, analysts believe that the global wheat output reduction will continue to push up wheat prices. Coupled with the large amount of money, international grain prices will continue to rise, and the market is waiting for new markets. Start.
Market rumors are often not groundless. It is understood that the high-temperature and dry weather in July and August this year has caused more than one billion U.S. dollars in damage to Russian agriculture. Russia has 11.15 million hectares of arable land this year, which accounts for 26% of the total cultivated area of ​​grain. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s latest forecast for annual grain production is between 60 million and 65 million tons, down 38 percent from 97 million tons last year.
Business Society analyst Song Zhichao told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that Russia's grain harvesting work was completed more than half, the results show that production may be reduced by 30% over the previous year, the harvest results confirmed the market speculation, it is expected that this will continue to boost US wheat prices.
In addition, after Russia announced the ban on grain exports, whether the Ukrainian government will pass resolutions restricting grain exports has become the focus of attention. According to foreign reports, Ukraine will meet on August 25th to finalize the export quota for grain from September to December this year, and this quota may only be 3.5 million tons at most. In the year of agricultural marketing from July to June of this year, Ukraine exported a total of 21 million tons of grain.
Ukraine is the sixth-largest wheat exporter in the world and its main export target is the Middle East and North Africa. Once the resolution is passed, it will likely increase the global wheat supply gap and rely heavily on the Middle East, which imports food from countries such as Russia and Ukraine, and may turn its sights on the European and American markets.
Affected by extreme weather, food in many other countries in Europe is also seriously damaged. In recent days, some wheat growing areas in Germany suffer from daily rainfall, which not only hinders wheat harvesting, but also may reduce the quality of wheat crops. Due to excessive rainfall and floods in some areas that cause damage to wheat crops, Statistics Canada predicts that the national wheat output this year will increase year-on-year. It fell 15% to 22.69 million tons, although it was 8% higher than its estimate in July, but the decline was still not small; the forecast data released by the Swedish Agricultural Department also showed that this year's Swedish food will be a serious failure and the total grain output will only reach 480 Ten thousand tons, about 8% less than last year.
Ma Wenfeng, an East Egg Food Industry Analyst, told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the international supply and demand of food is not too tight, but under the impetus of excessive currency circulation, food prices will “rise and stop†and will eventually remain high. trend.
COFCO Futures Li Jianlei told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the leading wheat harvest has ended, and that corn and soybeans will also bottom out seasonally. However, after the 2007-2008 food crisis, the global food trade and consumption structure will certainly change, and food prices will change. Certainly will rise, and now the market is waiting for the start of the next wave of the market.
From the domestic market, the fluctuation of international food prices has not yet had a direct impact. Song Zhichao believes that due to sufficient stocks in the current wheat market, China can basically achieve self-sufficiency, and the overall supply and demand situation is basically balanced. Affected by international food prices, it will continue to focus on stable adjustments in the short-term, and it will be easy to digest prices that have risen in the previous period. With the stable production of autumn grain and the subsidence of hype, the domestic wheat market is still dominated by stable consolidation. In addition, domestic flour demand is about to enter the off-season, and the wheat market is likely to continue to fall.
However, Song Zhichao expressed concern about the production of autumn crops. He believes that late rice is the most uncertain factor in the production of autumn grain crops. Delayed planting of late rice this year is delayed due to weather, and the risk is relatively large. It is expected that the adjustment of rice will continue and there will be slight fluctuations. The tone is based on stability.
In an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily, Yang Hong, general manager of COFCO Rice Industry, said that the domestic self-sufficiency ratio of rice is more than 95%, which is a relatively closed market and is not affected by foreign food prices. As the country continues to increase the price of rice purchases, rice prices will continue to rise moderately.
Market rumors are often not groundless. It is understood that the high-temperature and dry weather in July and August this year has caused more than one billion U.S. dollars in damage to Russian agriculture. Russia has 11.15 million hectares of arable land this year, which accounts for 26% of the total cultivated area of ​​grain. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s latest forecast for annual grain production is between 60 million and 65 million tons, down 38 percent from 97 million tons last year.
Business Society analyst Song Zhichao told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that Russia's grain harvesting work was completed more than half, the results show that production may be reduced by 30% over the previous year, the harvest results confirmed the market speculation, it is expected that this will continue to boost US wheat prices.
In addition, after Russia announced the ban on grain exports, whether the Ukrainian government will pass resolutions restricting grain exports has become the focus of attention. According to foreign reports, Ukraine will meet on August 25th to finalize the export quota for grain from September to December this year, and this quota may only be 3.5 million tons at most. In the year of agricultural marketing from July to June of this year, Ukraine exported a total of 21 million tons of grain.
Ukraine is the sixth-largest wheat exporter in the world and its main export target is the Middle East and North Africa. Once the resolution is passed, it will likely increase the global wheat supply gap and rely heavily on the Middle East, which imports food from countries such as Russia and Ukraine, and may turn its sights on the European and American markets.
Affected by extreme weather, food in many other countries in Europe is also seriously damaged. In recent days, some wheat growing areas in Germany suffer from daily rainfall, which not only hinders wheat harvesting, but also may reduce the quality of wheat crops. Due to excessive rainfall and floods in some areas that cause damage to wheat crops, Statistics Canada predicts that the national wheat output this year will increase year-on-year. It fell 15% to 22.69 million tons, although it was 8% higher than its estimate in July, but the decline was still not small; the forecast data released by the Swedish Agricultural Department also showed that this year's Swedish food will be a serious failure and the total grain output will only reach 480 Ten thousand tons, about 8% less than last year.
Ma Wenfeng, an East Egg Food Industry Analyst, told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the international supply and demand of food is not too tight, but under the impetus of excessive currency circulation, food prices will “rise and stop†and will eventually remain high. trend.
COFCO Futures Li Jianlei told the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that the leading wheat harvest has ended, and that corn and soybeans will also bottom out seasonally. However, after the 2007-2008 food crisis, the global food trade and consumption structure will certainly change, and food prices will change. Certainly will rise, and now the market is waiting for the start of the next wave of the market.
From the domestic market, the fluctuation of international food prices has not yet had a direct impact. Song Zhichao believes that due to sufficient stocks in the current wheat market, China can basically achieve self-sufficiency, and the overall supply and demand situation is basically balanced. Affected by international food prices, it will continue to focus on stable adjustments in the short-term, and it will be easy to digest prices that have risen in the previous period. With the stable production of autumn grain and the subsidence of hype, the domestic wheat market is still dominated by stable consolidation. In addition, domestic flour demand is about to enter the off-season, and the wheat market is likely to continue to fall.
However, Song Zhichao expressed concern about the production of autumn crops. He believes that late rice is the most uncertain factor in the production of autumn grain crops. Delayed planting of late rice this year is delayed due to weather, and the risk is relatively large. It is expected that the adjustment of rice will continue and there will be slight fluctuations. The tone is based on stability.
In an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily, Yang Hong, general manager of COFCO Rice Industry, said that the domestic self-sufficiency ratio of rice is more than 95%, which is a relatively closed market and is not affected by foreign food prices. As the country continues to increase the price of rice purchases, rice prices will continue to rise moderately.
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