Corn purchase a deserted "one dollar" into the psychological bottom line

“The higher the price in the early stage, the more reluctant the farmers are to sell, and they always want to wait for a higher price. As a result, the price has been falling over the period. Farmers are even more reluctant to sell.” For the currently desolate and desperate corn purchase market, Jilin Baicheng Li Xiushun, deputy general manager of Fengmi Industry Co., Ltd. reluctantly said. An interview with a reporter in Baicheng City found that the opening price of corn this year was higher than last year, but the peasants' reluctance to sell was very clear, and the psychological value of food prices was very high. As prices continued to decline, the atmosphere of reluctance to sell was even more intense. On September 27th, Songyuan Cargill Biochemical Co., Ltd. began to purchase corn, and converted the price of dry food to 2,200 yuan/ton, and COFCO Biochemical (000930, stocks) started the acquisition on October 15, and the opening price was also 2,200 yuan/ton, compared with the previous year. Price increased by 480 yuan per ton. The deputy director of the Songyuan Municipal Grain Bureau, Yueguo, said that the price has been falling in the late period. On October 20th, the price of biochemical grain received by Cargill has dropped to 2,130 yuan/ton, which is now down to 2,070 yuan/ton.

In the village of Shanyou Village, Shanyou Town, Ningjiang District, Songyuan City, the villager Tan Fengwen stated, “The current market price is reduced to a dry grain price of just about a dollar. If the price goes down, there is almost no accounting.” He also took out his own home. The calculator calculates the cost of the account: this year an average of one hectare of corn, 6,000 yuan for land, 2,760 yuan for chemical fertilizers, 500 yuan for seeds, 200 yuan for pesticides, 600 yuan for farming, including waxy corn, corn, and stubble The employment fee is 3,300 yuan, 500 yuan for water irrigation, 510 yuan for threshing, and the total cost is about 14,000 yuan. "This year, an average of 0.85 million kilograms per hectare, according to the current market price of 1.84 yuan / kg (natural water) calculation, can sell 15,600 yuan, earning 1,600 yuan per hectare."

“A piece of money this year is the psychological bottom line of everyone.” Li Jun, secretary of the Shanyou village branch, also said that now farmers not only have increased production expenditures, but also have increased living expenses. Although the price of grain has increased a lot in these two years, the surface looks The income of peasants has increased a lot, but some of the money that everybody has increased has been added to the cost of production, and some of them have been eaten up by prices of rice, flour, and oil. The living standards of peasants have not changed much. "If corn prices continue to fall this year, not only do you have to account for land and land, even if the farmer's own land, earning more than 7,000 yuan per hectare, it would be better to earn more if he goes out to work." He said: "Now ordinary workers earn money every day." They are all around 150 yuan, and they will earn at least 450,000 yuan a year."

Li Jun told reporters that only 704 households in the village currently have only 5 farmers selling grain, mainly because they do not recognize current prices. “This year's typhoon, insect and drought disasters are obvious. The average hectare yield of corn is only about 0.75 million kilograms and the output is reduced by more than 20%.” He said: “The cost of planting land has also increased. The average cost per hectare has increased by 500 yuan, and the price of fertilizer has increased. The cost is 140 yuan, the cost of hired workers is increased by 200 yuan, and the rough calculation will increase the cost by 840 yuan per hectare. It is certainly not acceptable for everyone to sell at a good price."

On the one hand, farmers do not recognize the current price of reluctant to sell the mentality is obvious, on the other hand is the atmosphere of the acquisition of the main body thick, corn buying market is deserted. At present, the main grain recipients are deep processing companies such as Changchun Dacheng Group, COFCO Biochemical, and Cargill Biochemical. There are also individual feed companies and scattered traders, and the deep processing industry holds market pricing power.

"At this time last year, various market players had begun to scramble for food. This year, everyone is still watching." Li Qiutian, deputy director of the Baicheng Food Bureau, said that last year, people generally felt that food sources were relatively tight, and the country even once limited the grain storage and deep processing industry. With regard to grain collection, other market players are worried that the shortage of prices of food resources in the later period will skyrocket. “This year’s situation is very different. The national harvest is big. The country has also imported a portion of corn as a reserve. The grain resources on the market are relatively abundant. Everyone began to worry that the oversupply of prices will fall in the later period. Therefore, the market is cautious and wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious,” he said.

The happy country said that since the new grain market was opened and weighed down, especially after entering October, prices have gradually dropped. On the one hand, the state has sold some of its inventory in the south against market supply and demand, followed by new markets such as Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi. In addition, the global economic situation, especially the decline in the economic situation in the United States, has also affected domestic food prices.

For the future trend of corn prices, Xu Jiawan, manager of corn procurement and receiving department of Cargill Biochemical Co., Ltd., said that the current price is still a downward trend, and they are purchasing more than 2,000 tons per day on average, which can basically meet the processing and conversion requirements of the day. The attitude of enterprise acquisition is relatively positive, with other main bodies entering the market one after another in the later period, and the price should not fall sharply.

“The deep processing conversion in Jilin Province accounts for about half of the commodity corn, and the feed and aquaculture industry has 1/4 conversion, and the trade grain accounts for 1/4.” Ding Zhaotuan, General Manager of Zhongku Grain Jilin Branch, believes that although the domestic corn harvest is large this year, the overall The tight supply pattern has not changed and it is expected that the market price will be relatively stable in the later period. However, “the current concern is that the deep-processing industry is affected by the international situation. Downstream product prices have led to shrinking demand for raw materials, so late-stage food prices still do not rule out the possibility of a phased decline.”

According to Liu Xiaoran, Secretary-General of the Jilin Provincial Food Economics Association, combining grain costs and market conditions of farmers this year, the price of corn discounted grain is set at a reasonable amount of money, which can guarantee farmers' reasonable income, and it will not lead animal prices to become the source of chain prices. . It is recommended that the national comprehensive utilization policy and market measures should control grain prices within a reasonable range. When the food price is lower than a dollar, the policy of temporary corn storage and storage should be started at the right time to prevent farmers from “increasing production without increasing income” and protecting farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain.