For the sugar industry, the most attention-grabbing events in the new crop season are the "2011/12 Sugar Production National Sugar Production and Marketing Working Conference" that just concluded in Haikou.
According to news from the conference, in the 2011/12 crop season, domestic sugar production and demand may both increase slightly. However, with the import quotas and national reserves of sugar, market supply and demand will be basically balanced.
At yesterday’s sugar conference, Jia Zhiren, executive vice chairman of the China Sugar Association, said that from the perspective of sugar production, according to the reports from several major producing areas, the output of the major producing areas for the 2011/12 crop season is: Guangxi 700 10,000 tons, 2.1 million tons in Yunnan, 1 million tons in Guangdong, 300,000 tons in Hainan, 45,000 tons in Fujian, 530,000 tons in Xinjiang, 140,000 tons in Inner Mongolia, 300,000 tons in Heilongjiang, plus the output of other producing areas, 2011/ 12 crop sugar production around 12 million tons. In addition, other available sources of sugar also include 1.945 million tons of import quotas, as well as national reserves of sugar.
Liu Hande, chairman of the Guangdong Sugar Association, pointed out that the national output of the 2011/12 crop is estimated to be around 12 million tons, with fluctuations of up to 1 million tons.
It is worth noting that the 2011/12 crop season may be the crop season for the first time since the last crop season. Compared with the output of 10.45 million tons in the last crop season, if the output of the crop reaches 12 million tons, the increase will be 1.55 million tons.
"The country's sugar production has increased by more than 1 million tons, which may change from a production cut cycle to a production increase cycle," said Ma Chunyang, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures.
Regarding sugar consumption demand, Jia Zhiren said that considering the consumption situation of the domestic sugar market in the 2010/11 crop season and the domestic macroeconomic situation, it is expected that the domestic sugar consumption in the 2011/12 crop season will maintain a slight increase, and the conservative estimate will exceed 13.5 million tons, even It is expected to exceed 14 million tons.
"According to the domestic sugar market output in the 2011/12 crop season, consumer expectations, and import quotas and national reserve sugar, the supply and demand of the domestic sugar market in the 2011/12 crop season is basically balanced, and prices are relatively stable," said Jia Zhiren.
Jia Zhiren also reviewed the production and sales of the domestic sugar market in the 2010/11 crop season. "The total crop sugar production in the last crop season was 10.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 284,100 tons; consumption was 13.58 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 210,000 tons. The average annual sugar consumption was 10.05 kilograms, and the sugar consumption structure was basically stable," said Jia Zhiren.
Yan Weimin, secretary general of the China Sugar Association, revealed that during the 2010/11 sugar season, China imported 2,070,500 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 401,600 tons, which was the highest import level in the past decade; exports were 70,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,900 tons. The national sugar import has been increasing for four consecutive years.
For the sugar forecast for the new crop season, Shanghai mid-term analyst Jing Cheng said that investors need to focus on two changes: First, the 2011/12 crop is expected to increase production for the first time after crop reduction in the past three crop seasons. The sugar price on high prices may have a negative effect. Second, from the sugar consumption situation in the last cropping season, the high price of sugar restrains the demand. If the sugar price in the 2011/12 crop continues to stay high, it may still make Demand is reduced, thereby reducing the gap between supply and demand in disguised form.
"Another thing to note is that at the sugar conference, most sugar factories and traders believe that the country's stock of sugar reserves has reached a record low level, and there may be a need for additional stocks, but Liu Xiaonan, director of the Trade and Logistics Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. Sugar control resources are sufficient, and favorable conditions for the market to guarantee supply will be more than this year next year." Jing Chengcheng said, "Different opinions may make the price of sugar fluctuate drastically."
Ouyang Yuping, an analyst at China International Futures (blog, Weibo), believes that the expected increase in sugar production during the crop season will strongly reduce the focus of sugar price in the coming year.
"In the short term, the gradual listing of new sugar, the concentration of imported sugar in Hong Kong and the sale of the State Reserve's sugar in the previous period have made the market relatively abundant and the sugar price is facing a certain level of resistance." Ouyang Yuping said, "The future is expected to be sugar futures. It will maintain high volatility."
According to news from the conference, in the 2011/12 crop season, domestic sugar production and demand may both increase slightly. However, with the import quotas and national reserves of sugar, market supply and demand will be basically balanced.
At yesterday’s sugar conference, Jia Zhiren, executive vice chairman of the China Sugar Association, said that from the perspective of sugar production, according to the reports from several major producing areas, the output of the major producing areas for the 2011/12 crop season is: Guangxi 700 10,000 tons, 2.1 million tons in Yunnan, 1 million tons in Guangdong, 300,000 tons in Hainan, 45,000 tons in Fujian, 530,000 tons in Xinjiang, 140,000 tons in Inner Mongolia, 300,000 tons in Heilongjiang, plus the output of other producing areas, 2011/ 12 crop sugar production around 12 million tons. In addition, other available sources of sugar also include 1.945 million tons of import quotas, as well as national reserves of sugar.
Liu Hande, chairman of the Guangdong Sugar Association, pointed out that the national output of the 2011/12 crop is estimated to be around 12 million tons, with fluctuations of up to 1 million tons.
It is worth noting that the 2011/12 crop season may be the crop season for the first time since the last crop season. Compared with the output of 10.45 million tons in the last crop season, if the output of the crop reaches 12 million tons, the increase will be 1.55 million tons.
"The country's sugar production has increased by more than 1 million tons, which may change from a production cut cycle to a production increase cycle," said Ma Chunyang, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures.
Regarding sugar consumption demand, Jia Zhiren said that considering the consumption situation of the domestic sugar market in the 2010/11 crop season and the domestic macroeconomic situation, it is expected that the domestic sugar consumption in the 2011/12 crop season will maintain a slight increase, and the conservative estimate will exceed 13.5 million tons, even It is expected to exceed 14 million tons.
"According to the domestic sugar market output in the 2011/12 crop season, consumer expectations, and import quotas and national reserve sugar, the supply and demand of the domestic sugar market in the 2011/12 crop season is basically balanced, and prices are relatively stable," said Jia Zhiren.
Jia Zhiren also reviewed the production and sales of the domestic sugar market in the 2010/11 crop season. "The total crop sugar production in the last crop season was 10.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 284,100 tons; consumption was 13.58 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 210,000 tons. The average annual sugar consumption was 10.05 kilograms, and the sugar consumption structure was basically stable," said Jia Zhiren.
Yan Weimin, secretary general of the China Sugar Association, revealed that during the 2010/11 sugar season, China imported 2,070,500 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 401,600 tons, which was the highest import level in the past decade; exports were 70,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,900 tons. The national sugar import has been increasing for four consecutive years.
For the sugar forecast for the new crop season, Shanghai mid-term analyst Jing Cheng said that investors need to focus on two changes: First, the 2011/12 crop is expected to increase production for the first time after crop reduction in the past three crop seasons. The sugar price on high prices may have a negative effect. Second, from the sugar consumption situation in the last cropping season, the high price of sugar restrains the demand. If the sugar price in the 2011/12 crop continues to stay high, it may still make Demand is reduced, thereby reducing the gap between supply and demand in disguised form.
"Another thing to note is that at the sugar conference, most sugar factories and traders believe that the country's stock of sugar reserves has reached a record low level, and there may be a need for additional stocks, but Liu Xiaonan, director of the Trade and Logistics Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. Sugar control resources are sufficient, and favorable conditions for the market to guarantee supply will be more than this year next year." Jing Chengcheng said, "Different opinions may make the price of sugar fluctuate drastically."
Ouyang Yuping, an analyst at China International Futures (blog, Weibo), believes that the expected increase in sugar production during the crop season will strongly reduce the focus of sugar price in the coming year.
"In the short term, the gradual listing of new sugar, the concentration of imported sugar in Hong Kong and the sale of the State Reserve's sugar in the previous period have made the market relatively abundant and the sugar price is facing a certain level of resistance." Ouyang Yuping said, "The future is expected to be sugar futures. It will maintain high volatility."
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