According to the analysis of the occurrence of diseases and insect pests in the past years, the national crop cultivation situation and the meteorological conditions at the end of 2016, the national agricultural technology center surveying personnel and relevant experts predict that the phenomenon of pests and diseases in China's crops will be more serious in 2017, and the cumulative area in the country is about It is 5.2 billion mu.
Among them, wheat scab, rice "two-shift" pests and other epidemic and migratory pests and diseases have a high risk of recurrence; rice aphids, rice sheath blight, wheat aphids, corn borer have a wide area, which is likely to cause serious disasters; Rice blast, wheat stripe rust, corn leaf spot, and potato late blight may be serious in some areas, and the armyworms and planthoppers are generally better. The local area may cause a large accumulation of armyworms and planthoppers to affect crop growth, grassland. The situation is better.
First, the rice "two moved" pests
According to the monitoring, the number of relocated insects in the “two-shift†pests in the Autumn of 2016 was less than 46%. In the Winter of 2016, the temperature in the southern part of the Yangtze River and the south of the Yangtze River is high, which is beneficial to the wintering of the “two-shift†pests. In the Spring of 2017, the precipitation in Leizhou Peninsula, Hainan, western Guangxi and southwestern China is relatively high, and the temperature is slightly lower, which is conducive to The migration of “two-shift†pests occurred; other early rice planting areas had high temperatures and normal or less precipitation, which had no obvious adverse impact on the migration of “two-shift†pests. Mixed cultivation of single and double-season rice in the southern rice region of China, mainly composed of coarse stalks, high-quality and high-yield varieties, easy to form a moderate and high-humidity field microclimate, and the planting period and growth period are not neat, and there are many bridges and fields. Conducive to the "two move" pests turned into harm.
It is expected that the overall occurrence of rice planthoppers will occur in 2017, including South China, Jiangnan, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwestern rice area. The area of ​​the country is 390 million mu. The rice leaf roller is generally moderate, including the southeast coast of Fujian and the Yangtze River. The downstream and Jiangnan rivers and lakes and rice areas are heavily biased, with an area of ​​260 million mu.
Second, rice aphids
In the pre-winter survey, the number of overwintering insects in the 2016 was higher than that in the previous year. The effective insect source area in the South China and Jiangnan rice areas increased by 8.1% and 6.1% respectively over the previous year. In South China, Jiangnan, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the number of live insects in the northeastern part of the country, the number of live insects is 2,500-4,400, and the number of larvae in the central and southern parts of Hunan is as high as 40,000-50,000. In the winter/spring of 2016/2017, the temperature in most parts of south China and southwest China is slightly lower. The temperature in other rice areas is normal or high, and there is no obvious adverse effect on the wintering of aphids. China's main producing rice area has a large area for harvesting, high residual rice piles, and high proportion of coarse stalks, which is conducive to the wintering, reproduction and occurrence of rice aphids.
It is expected that the total number of rice aphids will occur moderately in 2017, with an area of ​​270 million mu in the country. Among them, the stem borer in the south and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the single-double-season rice-growing area and the northwestern part of the Yangtze River and the northwestern part of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River area occur heavily, and the central and southern parts of Hunan, southern Hubei, and central Yunnan occur locally; The rice area occurred moderately; Datun was on the rise in some rice areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
Third, rice sheath blight
Rice sheath blight in the main producing areas of China has occurred year after year, and the number of bacterial sources in the field has accumulated continuously. Most of the rice areas have the basis of the above-mentioned degree of occurrence. It is predicted that in the winter of 2016, the temperature in most rice areas will be high and the precipitation will be close to normal. In the spring of 2017, the temperature in the south and southwestern parts of the rice area will be low, and the temperature in other large rice areas will be high and the precipitation will be less. At present, the main varieties of coarse stalk and large spike high planted in various rice areas in China are susceptible varieties. The meteorological conditions and planting system are suitable for the wintering and occurrence of sheath blight in the main rice producing areas.
In 2017, rice sheath blight is expected to occur in the southern rice region. Among them, Hunan, Hubei and other local rice areas occur greatly, and northern rice areas occur moderately. The national area is 260 million mu.
Fourth, wheat aphids
Before the winter survey, most of the wheat areas were below normal and the previous year. The Jianghuai, Huanghuai, North China and Northwest wheat areas are common, with an area of ​​17.09 million mu, an increase of 13% year-on-year; an average of 100 crops, 5.5 in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Ningxia and Beijing, respectively. 4.9 heads, 3.8 heads, 2.8 heads, 2.2 heads, 2.1 heads, 1.9 heads, and 0.9 heads, which are lower than the average amount of insects in the same period of the past five years; compared with the same period of last year, Hebei and Ningxia increased by one head and 0.8 head respectively. Most of the wheat areas were reduced by 0.9-13.4 heads. In the winter of 2016, the temperature in most of the country's wheat areas is close to normal or high; in the spring of 2017, the southern part of North China, Huanghuai and other places are 1 to 2 °C higher, which is beneficial to the wintering of aphids. The main varieties of the main producing areas of Jianghuai, Huanghuai and North China are generally poorly resistant to aphids, which is beneficial to the occurrence of aphids.
It is expected that the overall weight of wheat aphids will occur in 2017, including Shandong and Hebei, other wheat areas in Huanghuai and North China, Sichuan and Ningxia, and most of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and other wheat areas in the southwest and northwest. The area of ​​occurrence is 250 million mu.
V. Wheat stripe rust
Before the winter survey, the area of ​​strip rust autumn seedlings was small, and the overall condition was light. Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and other northwest autumn seedlings have an area of ​​1.9 million mu, the smallest year since 2001. However, Henan and Hubei began to see disease in mid-late December, with obvious early onset and more disease. The area of ​​Gansu is 1.54 million mu, which is 10% lower than the previous year. The average ward rate is 20%-50%, the average diseased leaf rate is 0.004%-0.5%, and the highest is 5%. The area of ​​sickness in Ningxia was 213,000 mu, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and the highest disease rate was 8.6%. Shaanxi saw sickness in 6 counties of Baoji, 3 fewer than the previous year, with an area of ​​134,000 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%. The average ward rate of Qixian and Fengxiang counties was 45.1% and 35.7%. The other four counties were spoiled. In Henan, three counties in Nanyang and Zhumadian, Hubei Province found multiple disease centers in eight counties of Fuyang, Shiyan, Suizhou, Jingzhou and Jingmen, with a wide area and a heavy degree. Sichuan has sporadically occurred in six counties in the Jialing River Basin, the Lancang River, the Ganzi Prefecture and the Panxi Region. Xinjiang has an incidence of 0.5 million mu in four counties of Aksu, with an average morbidity rate of 13.3% and an average diseased leaf rate of 0.3%, which is heavier than the same period in 2012-2015. In the winter of 2016, the precipitation in the southwestern part of the country, the Hanshui River Basin, and the southern part of Huanghuai River are normal, and the temperature is close to normal or high, which is conducive to the winter rust of stripe rust. In the spring of 2017, most of Yunnan, southwestern Sichuan and other places have more precipitation. 50% is conducive to the spring of stripe rust. Most of the wheat varieties have poor resistance to stripe rust, and the frequency of new disease-causing groups in the growing areas is increasing, the loss of rust resistance of varieties is accelerated, and the incidence of some varieties is aggravated.
It is expected that wheat stripe rust will occur moderately in 2017, including Gansu Weinan and Jizhong high-altitude late-maturing wheat areas, Sichuan river basin, southern Henan, northwestern Hanjiang River, Xinjiang Yili River Valley and Tacheng Basin, which are in a prevailing trend. Hubei Jianghan The plains and most of the northwestern part of Hubei, the southwestern wheat areas, the southern and central parts of Gansu, the southwestern part of Shaanxi and the central and western Guanzhong, the southern part of Ningxia, the eastern part of Qinghai and other wheat areas in Xinjiang are moderately popular, other parts of Shaanxi, central and northern Henan, southern and eastern Shandong, and Shanxi. And the southern part of Hebei occurs lightly; the country has an area of ​​30 million mu.
Six, corn glutinous rice
The average number of live worms in the pre-winter surveys was 45-76 in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Jiangsu, and Shanxi, and 30-38 in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, and Yunnan. Tianjin, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan, Xinjiang, and Chongqing. Guizhou has 10-29 heads, and Sichuan, Beijing and Ningxia have less than 10 heads. Compared with the previous year, Shanxi and Anhui increased by 4.8 times and 1.8 times respectively, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia increased by 54.4% and 70.6% respectively, and Heilongjiang, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Hunan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan increased by 6.4%-27.2%, Jilin and Liaoning. Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Chongqing decreased by 1.9%-47.2% respectively compared with the previous year. In the winter of 2016, there may be a staged strong cooling in the northeast and northern Xinjiang, which is not conducive to the overwintering of corn borers. In the spring of 2017, precipitation in most other areas of Heilongjiang and southwestern China is higher than normal. Less, it has a certain adverse effect on the emergence of corn pupa.
It is estimated that the area of ​​corn borer in 2017 will be 342 million mu. Among them, the first generation of corn borer occurs mostly in the northeast, and the middle part of North China, Huanghuai and Southwest China occurs moderately, with an area of ​​120 million mu. The second generation of corn borer is in the northeast and northwest. The southwestern part of the country is heavily biased, with an area of ​​150 million mu. The third generation of corn borer occurs in most of the Huanghuaihai area, with an area of ​​72 million mu.
Seven, sticky insects
In 2016, the overall damage degree of the three generations of sticky insects was significantly lighter than that of the previous year, and the amount of returned insects was significantly less than that of 2013-2015. According to the monitoring of high altitude survey lights in the late Summer and early autumn, the northeast, north China, Huanghuai, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Jiangnan, South China and Southwest China have attracted a small number of adults, which is a lower year. In September, the cumulative amount of insects was 40 in Hebei Province, the highest value in North China and Northeast China, and 5 in Jilin Changling and Liaoning Zhangwu, and in Inner Mongolia, Horqin, Heilongjiang Shuangcheng and Fujin; Shandong Laizhou and Changdao are 252 and 190, respectively, and Shanxi Wanrong is 15; in September-October, the total amount of insects in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 199 in Jiangsu Dongtai, Hubei Qianjiang, Shanghai Fengxian and Anhui Fengtai. 42 heads, 31 heads, and 6 heads; in October-November, the total amount of insects in the southwest, southeast, and south China was 284, and Wanjiang in Jiangxi, Hezhang in Guizhou, and Yizhou in Guangxi were all below 15. In the winter of 2016, the temperature in most parts of South China and Jiangnan was normal or high, and the precipitation was close to normal. It was beneficial to the population growth of the armyworm. In the spring of 2017, the temperature in the Jianghuai and Huanghuai areas was high and the precipitation was less. And the occurrence is not very favorable.
It is expected that in 2017, the first generation of sticky insects will occur lightly in the southern wheat areas of Jianghuai and Huanghuai, with an area of ​​8 million mu. The second and third generations of sticky insects will occur in the Huanghuai, North China and Northeast maize producing areas, and some areas will have high density. Concentrated on the field, the area is 40 million mu.
Eight, flying dragonfly
According to the survey, in 2016, the bases of East Asian migratory locusts and Asian locusts were low, and the base number of Tibetan locusts was higher than that of the previous year. Among them, the area of ​​the East Asian locust in the autumn of 2016 was 75.32 million mu, which was 7.3% and 13.4% lower than the average of the previous year and the past five years respectively; the average residue density was 10.2 per mu, which was lower than the average of the previous year and the past five years respectively. 4.7%, 8.6%. Henan Zhengzhou Huiji, Fuyang, Shandong Yucheng, Hebei Zunhua, Kuancheng, Cixian, Xianghe, Zhangping, Tianjin Dagang, Shanxi Wanrong, Linyi, Shaanxi Daxie, Hainan Dongfang and other places found more than 100 per mu The high-density debris has an area of ​​83,000 mu, which is 22.8% and 31.5% lower than the previous year and the average of the past five years. Asia's 2016 wreckage area of ​​173,000 mu, which is 19.2% and 44.7% lower than the previous year and the average of the past three years, and the average residue density is 2.7 per mu, slightly lower than the previous year's 2.8 and the average of the past 3 years. 3.3 heads. The area of ​​wreckage in Tibet's agricultural area is 33,000 mu, which is 6.5% and 10% higher than the previous year and the average of the past three years. The average residue density is 7.2 per mu, which is higher than the average of the previous year and the past three years. 5.9% and 9.1%. In the winter of 2016, the temperatures in most of North China, Huanghuai, Sichuan and Tibet were normal or high, which was favorable for the wintering of East Asian migratory locusts and Tibetan locusts. The temperature in northern Xinjiang and other places was low, which was unfavorable for the wintering of Asian locusts. In the spring of 2017, the temperature in most of the reclamation areas was normal or high, and the precipitation was close to normal or less; the ecological environment of each reclamation area did not change significantly, and there was no obvious adverse impact on the occurrence of aphids.
It is expected that the East Asian migratory locusts and the Tibetan locusts will occur moderately in 2017, and high-density sputum spots may occur in some areas. The Asian locusts occur lightly, and it is not possible to rule out the possibility of the alien locusts moving into the country. High-density group-type sputum spots may occur in the local Qiangtang wetlands in Heilongjiang and Jilin. The East Asian migratory locust, the Tibetan migratory locust and the Asian migratory locust have an area of ​​19.5 million mu, 1.6 million mu and 500,000 mu, respectively, with a total area of ​​10.5 million mu, 1.1 million mu and 250,000 mu.
Nine, grasshoppers
According to the autumn winter base survey, the country only in Inner Mongolia Erdos, Xing'an League, Ningxia Shizuishan and Jilin Songyuan, the winter coverage of the three provinces (districts) are 41,000 mu, 29,000 mu and 0.02 million mu respectively. The total wintering area is higher than the previous year. In the same period, the weighted average density of the wintering livelihoods in the three provinces (regions) was 0.28, 0.01 and 0.1 per square meter, respectively. It is estimated that the total winter insects in the country decreased by more than 90% year-on-year, the smallest year since 2001. In recent years, China's grassland alfalfa populations are in an intermittent period, showing a trend of sustained lightening. The source areas of Russia and other offshore areas are also at the bottom of the cycle. In the spring of 2017, temperatures in the northwest, north China, and northeastern parts were close to normal or high, and had no adverse effects on the growth of host plants, the emergence, retention, reproduction, and generation of larvae of wintering adults.
It is estimated that in 2017, the grassland cricket generation will occur lightly in the northwest, north China and northeast, with an area of ​​about 500,000 mu. For example, in the summer of Mongolia, Kazakhstan and other countries outside the source of insects, does not rule out the possibility of second-generation larvae.
X. Climatic epidemic diseases
Wheat scab, rice blast, corn leaf spot and potato late blight are the most serious climatic epidemics in China's main food crops. At present, most of the main varieties in China are susceptible or poor in disease resistance. 90% of the main varieties in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Jianghuai, Huanghuai and North China are susceptible to smut; the main rice varieties are blast. The disease resistance is uneven, and the susceptible varieties in the southwest and northeast rice areas are 50%-60%; the proportion of susceptible areas in the main potato producing areas is over 70%. Due to years of planting, the existing disease-resistant varieties have accelerated the variation of the germ population, resulting in weakened, degraded or even lost varieties. Crops such as wheat and rice are planted across regions, making the resistance of the varieties poor. The management of high-fertilizer water in high-yield crop areas has resulted in large populations and closed fields, which is also conducive to the occurrence of diseases. In the spring of 2017, the temperature in most wheat areas is close to normal or high in the same period of the year. The probability of continuous rainy weather in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the main part of the Yellow River and Huaihe River is high, and there are many times in the next day. The prevalence risk of scab is higher than that of the above. The resistance of common fungi to the scab in Changfa Province is constantly developing, affecting the preventive effect, and will increase the degree of scab. Rice tillering and heading stage, wheat heading and flowering stage, corn jointing to heading stage and potato bud flower stage are susceptible diseases. The temperature conditions in this period are suitable. Precipitation is the key factor of disease epidemic, and the frequent occurrence area is easy to encounter. To the rainy or foggy weather, the disease is seriously endemic.
It is expected that the prevalence risk of wheat scab in Shanghai will be high in 2017. Among them, Anhui and Jiangsu along the Huaihe River and its south, Hubei Jianghan Plain, northern Zhejiang, Shanghai coastal wheat area have a pandemic risk, other wheat areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Huanghuai There is a possibility of prevalence in the wheat area, and the wheat areas in the south, southwest and northwest of China are moderately popular; the area is 100 million mu. Rice blast is generally moderate, with the southwest, the south of the Yangtze River, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northeastern rice area being more prevalent than the above-mentioned epidemic risk; the area of ​​occurrence is 70 million mu. Corn big spot disease occurs in the northeast, north and southwest, and occurs in the northeast. The area is 70 million mu. The late blight of potato is generally moderate. Among them, the southwestern part of the country, the northeastern part of the northeast, the northern part of North China and the northwestern part of the country have a high prevalence risk; the area is 30 million mu.
Every grower should pay more attention to the occurrence of pests and diseases in 2017. Huinong School will also try to provide various methods for the prevention and control of pests and diseases, and take good measures to prevent pests and diseases in order to continue harvesting in the new year. Well, understand the trend of pests and diseases in 2017, I believe that you have prepared and responded to the policy.
Summer
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