Beef prices will continue to rise

Into October, beef consumption ushered in the traditional sense of the consumer peak season, the average price reached 60 yuan per kilogram, up more than two percent over the same period last year. This kind of rally makes consumers very helpless and calls high-priced beef “the devil”. However, unlike the price of "roller coaster"-like pork, the price of beef has been rising for a long time.

In September this year, the National Development Plan for Beef and Mutton Production (2013-2020) promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that due to multiple factors such as rising breeding costs and low efficiency of breeding stocks, the nation’s beef cattle population has been reduced, and production growth has slowed. The relationship between supply and demand has tightened, and there is a shortage of beef and mutton in local areas. In particular, the continuous decline of the number of stocks has become a major bottleneck restricting the development of the industry. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the nation’s energy-saving cow population was 10.2% lower than during the “10th Five-Year Plan” period.

Sun Xueming, deputy director of the Bureau of Animal Husbandry of Gaoqing County, said that the long feeding period of beef cattle is also an important cause of the “crop shortage”. "Being beef cattle is different from pigs, chickens, etc. It cannot be accelerated. Generally speaking, it takes 18 months for the cattle and 28 months for the black cattle. If it is not reached, it will cause a decline in meat quality."

At the same time, the demand for beef in the domestic market has become even stronger. With the improvement of living standards and the frequent occurrence of food safety problems such as pork lean meat in recent years, consumers have correspondingly increased the consumption of beef and mutton. According to estimates by the National Development and Reform Commission, considering the factors such as the dietary structure of the Chinese residents, changes in meat consumption and prices, the national per capita beef consumption in 2015 will reach 5.19 kg, which is 0.32 kg more than in 2010.

This also means that the "crop shortage" will not disappear within a short period of time. It is widely expected in the industry that domestic beef prices will continue to rise in the coming period.